 |
 |
 |
|
Sunday, April 23, 2006
THE "DOW THEORY" CON! PART 3
THE "DOW THEORY" CON! PART 2 presented some of the insights about the Stock Market that Charles Henry Dow gave to his readers.
Readers, Traders, Investors, lend me your eyes; I write to resurrect Charles Henry Dow, and to bury those who have taken the name of Charles Henry Dow in vain!
Welcome to 3rd Part of THE "DOW THEORY" CON! Series.
This Part discusses the rise of the "Dow Theory Cult" and the devastating rebuttals that the professionals issued to "the Dow Theorists" in "those days". Yes, 1910 through 1936 was a long time ago, and many of these "DOW THEORISTS" were hoping that no one checked!
Yes, It’s true. The Dow Theory was repudiated by professional traders prior to 1922.
Let’s walk together down Wall Street’s memory lane, and see what has been overlooked, or deliberately hidden, to prevent you from finding the real goodies in the Treasure Trove we call the Stock Market.
The most damning piece of evidence that the "Dow Theorists" have hidden from you comes from the "premier" source for the history of Charles Henry Dow, and the Dow Jones & Company, John Prestbo.
What did John Prestbo reveal about the DOW THEORY?
"In 1921, a reader wrote to the Journal to complain that he had followed the Dow Theory but hadn’t made any money. An editorial, presumably written by Hamilton, replied that the Dow Theory was a barometer of market, not a guide to gambling in it. However, the Journal thereafter avoided using the term "Dow Theory" except to repeat the barometer metaphor. Disciples from outside Dow Jones & Co. picked up the Dow Theory banner and carried it forward to the present day, notably Robert Rhea and Richard Russell."
When did John Prestbo reveal this fact?
He brought this fact to the public’s attention in November of 1999.
How did John Prestbo reveal this fact?
Perhaps the "DOW THEORISTS" failed to notice this revelation as it was stated in an obscure article, or a passing remark in an poorly covered speech or interview!
Wrong!
John Prestbo revealed this devastating fact (devastating to the Dow Theorists) in his book Markets Measure: An Illustrated History of America Told Through the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Hardcover) by John A. Prestbo (Editor),Dow Jones & Company, Inc. (November 1999).
You, our trusty readers, will have to judge the culpability of the DOW THEORISTS, as you are the ones who were keep out the current Bull Market for over three years by some of the more prominent DOW THEORISTS!
After all, those of you who were deceived have borne the financial brunt (lost profits) by failing to invest at the right time!
The evidence by John Prestbo of the Dow Jones & Company does imply that that many of these DOW THEORISTS knew their theory didn’t work. It seems unlikely that the "experts" on the Dow Jones Averages would have failed to notice this book!
We now submit the second piece of evidence about the "DOW THEORY" CON!
Alfred Cowles did a famous study in 1932. This Landmark study asked the question "Can Stock Markets forecasters forecast?".
Alfred Cowles’s test of the most popular Stock Market forecasters revealed the following:
"1. The records of 11 leading financial periodicals and services since 1927, over periods varying from 10 to 15.5 years, fail to disclose evidence of ability to predict successfully the future course of the stock market.
2. Of the 6904 forecasts recorded during the 15.5 year period, more than four times as many were bullish as bearish, although more than half of the period was occupied by bear markets, and stocks, at the end were at only about two-thirds of their level at the beginning.
3. The record of the forecasting agency with the best results for the 15,5 years since 1927, when tabulated back to 1903, for the 40 years showed results 3.3 per cent a year better than would have been secured by a continuous investment in the stocks composing the Dow-Jones industrial average. Under present laws the capital-gains tax might wipe out most of this advantage. While prospects for the speculator are, therefore, not particularly alluring, statistical tests disclose positive evidence of structure in stocks prices which indicates a likelihood that whatever success may be claimed for the very consistent 40-year record is not entirely accidental. A simple application of the ‘inertia’ principle, such as buying at turning points in the market after prices for a month averaged higher, and selling after they averaged lower, than for the previous month, would have resulted in substantial gains for the period under consideration. "
We know that the "DOW THEORY" was the dominant technique at this time! It’s reasonable to assume that the Alfred Cowles study was a valid test of the "DOW THEORY", regardless of differences in interpretation by the competing "DOW THEORISTS".
A well publicized study from the Journal of Finance, Vol. L111, No. 4, August 1998 attempted to restore William Peter Hamilton’s reputation!
The article, " THE DOW THEORY: WILLIAM PETER HAMILTON’S TRACK RECORD RECONSIDERED" failed to accomplish it’s mission!
When one removes the statistical gibberish, one is left at the beginning (the real problem), which this study acknowledged.
WHAT IS THE REAL PROBLEM WITH THE "DOW THEORY"?
I quote the Journal of Finance article "THE DOW THEORY"
Analysis of the Hamilton’s Editorials!
"To evaluate Hamilton as a market timer, we code the 255 Hamilton editorials as bullish, bearish, neutral, or indeterminate! We then collect total return information on the US Stock Market over that period, and perform parametric and nonparametric tests of trading strategies analogous to those evaluated by Cowles. Finally, we examine the price dynamics of the Dow Industrials around editorial publication dates."
Hamilton’s Editorials
"Unfortunately, the recommendations in Hamilton’s editorials are not always clear! Cowles solution was to have five subjects score the editorials, and then take the majority opinion on each. We use only one subject to score the editorials. "
One must ask how many subjects were used in this research study to find the one subject who answered the semantical Rorschach test properly( provides the right answers to prove the mandatory (prepaid) conclusion). Grant providers demand results for their money!
Wouldn’t it be interesting to know who paid for this study!
Hamilton's writings capture his healthy ego. He made no secret that he thought Charles Dow to be far too cautious in his editorials. Hamilton wrote of Dow that;
"He {Dow} would write a strong, readable and convincing editorial, on a public question affecting finance and business, and in the last paragraph would add safeguards and saving clauses which not merely took the sting out of It but took the "wallop" out of it. In the language of the prize ring, he pulled his punches."
This is too funny when you realize that analysts have problems determining just what Hamilton did say in his forecasts!
Perhaps the statement "the walking and the talking don’t line up" was first created to describe William Peter Hamilton!
We now submit the final piece of evidence proving that the "DOW THEORY " is a con!
We now place into evidence the exact words from a man known for his intense record keeping, scholarship, and knowledge of markets.
THE DOW THEORY OBSOLETE! by WILLIAM DELBERT GANN
During recent years, the Dow Theory has spread all over the country. People have begun to regard it as very valuable and infallible, but, in fact, it is now of practically of no value to a trader. With so many stocks listed on the New York Exchange, 30 stocks, or 20 stocks are no longer a representative of the trend. Besides, you cannot trade in the Averages (this statement was true until recently). You must follow the trend of individual stocks in order to make money.
The DOW THEORY worked quite well up until 1916, when the WORLD WAR changed everything! Then this country changed from an agricultural country to a manufacturing country. In 1916, when the Dow Jones 30 Industrials advanced to new highs, which was 7 points above the highs of 1906, the Railroad Averages at that time were 24 points under the 1906 record high. The man who waited for the Rails to confirm the upward trend in Industrials certainly got left behind, missed opportunities, and probably lost money!
In 1917, the Government took over the Railroads, and in December, 1917, the Dow Jones 20 railroad Averages declined to 69. The Industrials at the same time made a low of 66. This was the first time that the Rails were as low as they were in 1897, while the Industrials were 13 points above the 1907 panic lows.
In 1918 and 1919, the Rails failed to follow the Industrials, and were no good as a guide, or confirmation, according to the DOW THEORY. In July, 1919, the Industrials were making a new record high while the Rails were making new low levels. In November, 1919, the Industrial reached a new high of 119 1/2. In the same month, the Railroad Averages reached the low of the year, only 3 points above their 1907 lows. The Rails were going exactly opposite to the trend of the Industrials, and the DOW THEORY was not working!
In June of 1921, the Railroad Averages reached a low of 64. In August of 1921, the Industrial Averages reached the same low of 64. The Industrial Averages were only 2 points under the 1907 lows. Then followed the big bull market in Industrial Stocks, and the Rails were laggards.
In January, 1925, the Industrial Averages crossed 120, the record high of 1919, and the Rails were still 38 points below their 1906 highs, and 12 points below their 1916 highs. If you had waited for the Rails to confirm the Industrial Averages by making new highs before buying Industrial stocks, you would have missed big opportunities, and would have had to wait until July, 1927, when the Rails crossed the highs made in 1906. The Industrial Averages at that time were 63 points above the 1909 highs, and 80 points above the 1906 highs for Industrial stocks.
On September 3, 1929, the 30 Industrial Averages reached the highest point in history at 386, and the Rails reached a high of 189. After the panicky decline to November, 1929, the Industrial Averages rallied nearly 100 points. The Rails rallied only 29 points. After April, 1930, the Rails were weaker than the Industrials, and had smaller rallies.
In 1931, the Rails broke 42, the low made in 1896. In June 1932, the Rails declined to 13 1/8, while the 30 Industrial Averages declined to 40 ½. The Industrials were 12 points below the 1896 lows, while the Rails were 29 points under their 1896 lows.
In July 1933, the Industrials rallied to 110, and the Rails rallied to 58.
In October, 1933, the Industrial Averages reacted to 85 ½, and the Rails to 33. The Industrials never broke the March 1933 lows until they had advanced to 149 ½ in November, 1935.
In March, 1935, the Rails sold at 27 while the Industrials were at 96. The Industrials were 13 points above the lows of October, 1933, while the Rails were 6 points below. This again proved that you could not depend upon the DOW THEORY.
From March, 1935, to November, 1935, the Industrials advanced 53 ½ points while the Rails rallied only 12 points. You would have missed profits of anywhere from 50 to 75 points if you had waited to buy Industrial stocks until the Rails made new highs, and confirmed the advance.
This is plenty of proof that the DOW THEORY is now obsolete, and that you cannot depend upon it to work in the future. W. D. Gann January 3, 1936.
Any questions, readers?
An important thing to remember when you read the Gann commentary shown above is the numerical value of the Averages. W. D. Gann is talking about real averages,not the Index numbers you now use in the Dow Averages.
For example, the Index number currently used for the Dow Jones Industrials is 11,347.45 as of the close on 4/21/2006. The real average is 113.40.The real all time high for the Dow Jome Industrials is 386. Just in case you were wondering where all the prosperity went!
Well, dear readers, we now close this part of the "DOW THEORY" CON! SERIES.
The next part (PART 4) will present some of the "Great Traders" who did understand what Charles Henry Dow was talking about, and went on to even greater breakthroughs.
We will also provide "hidden facts" that cause many of you to change your investment strategies in a "major" way.
Till then, keep on charting!
Wayne N. Krautkramer onlypill@cox.net http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade/id40.html
THE "DOW THEORY" CON! SERIES PART1 http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade/id36.html
PART2http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade/id38.html
PART3http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade/id40.html
Posted at 09:07 pm by onlypill
Permalink
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
THE "DOW THEORY" CON! PART 2
THE "DOW THEORY" CON! PART 1 presented the professional history of Charles Henry Dow
Readers, Traders, Investors, lend me your eyes; I write to resurrect Charles Henry Dow, and to bury those who have taken the name of Charles Henry Dow in vain!
Welcome to 2nd Part of THE "DOW THEORY" CON! Series
"Among history’s interesting ironies is that of the journalist who is famous for his numbers, not his words. Charles Henry Dow, founder and first editor of The Wall Street Journal, invented the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It became the most widely quoted indicator of the US stock market and not just within the United States but around the world. This chapter relates how it became a global icon of equity investing long before it was permitted to be the basis of indexed investment vehicles. " John Prestbo
Who is John Presbo, and what makes him an absolute authority on Charles Dow, and the articles that Charles Dow wrote for the Wall Street Journal?
John Prestbo is editor of the Dow Jones Global Indexes and has responsibility for the development of new indexes for Dow Jones & Company. He is also markets editor of The Wall Street Journal. Since joining the Journal in 1964 as a reporter in the Chicago bureau, Mr. Prestbo has held various positions including, commodity news editor in New York and assistant managing editor and bureau chief in Cleveland. He was appointed vice president/editorial director of Dow Jones Radio 2 in 1981.
He returned to the Journal as markets editor in 1983. He worked on the January 1993 launch of the Dow Jones World Stock Index and in April 1993 became its editor. In July 1996, the World Stock Index group was renamed Dow Jones Indexes. Mr. Prestbo has co-authored numerous books, including News and the Market; Barron’s Guide to Making Investment Decisions and The Wall Street Journal Book of International Investing. In 1999, he edited The Market’s Measure, an Illustrated History of America Told Through the Dow Jones Industrial Average, published by Dow Jones Indexes. Mr. Prestbo received a bachelor’s and master’s degree from Northwestern University.
"Charles Dow is one of Wall Street’s most significant legends for two very significant reasons- he created our financial bible, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), as well as our first market barometer, the Dow Jones Averages. He is also the father of technical analysis. Ironically, Dow went relatively unnoticed for his achievements and died quietly at the age of 51 in his modest Brooklyn apartment in 1902---years before he was credited with revolutionizing the way we now talk about the stock market." The Dow Theory Project
Charles Dow’s observations about stocks, and stock averages!
"Dow used his averages to study the markets, and he wrote about his findings in a series of editorials that began in 1899. He found cycles in market behavior, just as he had in the economy. For these observations alone Dow is sometimes identified as the "father" of technical market analysis, which focuses on price movements and trading volume to discern patterns that more or less repeat themselves. But he was equally attentive to "fundamentals" such as dividends and, for railroads, car-loading statistics, which provided insight into the economic and financial trends that the market was reacting to. His writing style was stiff by contemporary standards, but occasionally he transcended the particulars and set down vivid metaphors of how these invisible forces worked. One example comes from the Journal of January 31, 1901:
A person watching the tide coming in and who wishes to know the exact spot which marks the high tide, sets a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves do not come up to it, and finally recede enough to show that the tide has turned.
This method holds good in watching and determining the flood tide of the stock market. The average of twenty stocks is the peg which marks the height of the waves. The price-waves, like those of the sea, do not recede at once from the top. The force which moves them checks the inflow gradually and time elapses before it can be told with certainty whether the tide has been seen or not." John Prestbo
"In a series of stunning editorials for the Wall Street Journal at the turn of the century, Dow laid out the foundation of his own theory on the stock market. Among them were:
The market is always to be considered as having three movements, all going on at the same time.
The first thing to consider is the value of the stock in which the speculator proposes to trade, the second the direction of the main movement, and the third the direction of the secondary movement (i.e. stocks fluctuate together, but prices are controlled by values in the long run).
There are three phases to both a primary bull market and a primary bear market (not to be confused with the three movements mentioned above).
The formation of a "line" in the averages indicates accumulation or distribution
The market represents a serious well-considered effort on the part of far-sighted and well-informed men to adjust prices to such values as exist or which are expected to exist in the not too remote future.
The method of making money in stocks, according to Dow, was to study basic conditions and exercise enough patience to capture the major movements." Henry To
General market observations by Charles Dow
An investor "who will study values and market conditions, and then exercise enough patience for six men, will be likely to make money in stocks"
"that nobody in the world knew everything-but, that the price movement of the averages did because they represent the aggregate knowledge of all investors"
Dow was the first known observer to note that "the price trend is not saying what the condition of business is today, but what it will be months from now"" Henry To
We can see from the evidence shown above that Charles Dow was the Father of investment market analysis. His observations were irrefutable then, and still are irrefutable.
We are saddened to realize that this keen observer of human nature, and the stock market, was never acknowledged during his lifetime.
We find it reprehensible that so many second raters crawled out from under the rocks after Charles Dow’s death, claiming expertise in Charles Dow’s Theory (he didn’t have a theory).
They then went further, claiming the "Downess" of concepts that they made up.
The most obvious of the deceptions was the creation of the Confirmation of the Averages.
Charles Dow said no such thing!
The myth of the Confirmation of the Averages rule was created by William P. Hamilton.
Even stranger is the fact that "although Hamilton did more any other one person to legitimize it, he apparently did not coin the phrase "Dow Theory" to summarize Dow’s collective market observations and analysis. For that matter neither did Dow, who made no claims to advancing a "theory" of market behavior. The phrase seems to have appeared first in 1903 in The ABC of Stock Speculation, published by S. A. Nelson as part of Nelson’s Wall Street Library series. (That book, which quotes Dow extensively, also is available to present-day readers.) In 1921, a reader wrote to the Journal to complain that he had followed the Dow Theory but hadn’t made any money. An editorial, presumably written by Hamilton, replied that the Dow Theory was a barometer of market, not a guide to gambling in it. However, the Journal thereafter avoided using the term "Dow Theory" except to repeat the barometer metaphor. Disciples from outside Dow Jones & Co. picked up the Dow Theory banner and carried it forward to the present day, notably Robert Rhea and Richard Russell." John Prestbo
"That his legacy, the industrial average, is the "language" people everywhere use to describe what the US stock market has done, is doing and will do surely would astonish Dow. He probably would be pleased and dismayed in equal measure – proud that his creation still monitors the mighty engine of US economic growth into the Twenty-First Century, but upset that the average’s outward show of statistical precision is used by some to lend credence to their stock-promotion schemes. There’s no evidence in Dow’s market commentary (and he kept no diary nor wrote any letters revealing his private thoughts) that he regarded his average as anything other than a device to assist in probing and dissecting the nature of the market." John Prestbo
PART 3 will introduce the intellectual heirs of Charles Dow, and the incredible contributions they made to build on the work of the great man, Charles Dow.
We must again thank John Prestbo, and the other authors that have provided the historical facts about Charles Dow, and the ‘Dow Theory".
"We are like dwarfs sitting on the shoulders of giants. We see more than they do, indeed even farther; but not because our sight is better than theirs or because we are taller than they. Our sight is enhanced because they raise us up and increase our stature by their enormous height" Bernard of Chartes
Part 3 of THE ‘DOW THEORY" CON! series will present explosive and irrefutable proof that the so-called DOW THEORY was refuted over 80 years ago! Coming soon!
Wayne N. Krautkramer Onlypill@cox.net http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade
Posted at 08:11 pm by onlypill
Permalink
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
THE DOW THEORY CON! PART 1
Charles Dow never had a Dow Theory! Charles Dow never wrote a book, or a pamphlet. Charles
Dow’s entire collection of market observations appeared as editorials in his publication from the Dow, Jones, & Company.
This series will accumulate the historical evidence from many reliable sources that will prove that the " DOW THEORY" is a con. Our sources include the people who definitely know the history of the Dow Jones numbers, and Charles Dow’s work.
We will present the evidence, and you, the readers (our trusty jury) will determine the verdict. You will find that the time and effort you spend reading this series will be profitable for you! You will also be introduced to a number of brilliant analysts that the modern salesman/broker/financial writer would rather that you never knew about!
Let us begin PART 1 of this series.
Who was Charles Dow?
Charles Henry Dow was typical of the individuals who created the original financial markets of the US.
Independent of thought, confident of their ability to formulate correct conclusions from their observations of the world, generally from working class families, most being recipients of only a rudimentary education at best, and all seemingly oblivious to their inferior education, status, and lack of advantages. This was the American of the 1850-1920’s!
"Charles Dow was born November 6, 1851, on a farm near Sterling, Connecticut. His father died when he was six, and his mother saw to it that he attended the one-room schoolhouse to gain a basic education. At age 16, he set out on his journalism career, beginning at a weekly newspaper and moving up to dailies in Springfield, Massachusetts, and Providence, Rhode Island. His reporting reflected an interest in history and economics, which attracted the attention of a group of financiers that were interested in the silver rush at Leadville, Colorado, in the late 1870s."
This is origin of the man who did the "key" research for what would later come to be called "The Dow Theory" by unscrupulous stock promoters who wanted to make their sales pitch appear legitimate.
Charles Dow’s professional career!
"Thus did "Charlie" Dow become fascinated with business, finance and investment. Not surprisingly, when he headed back east after the mine trip he went to New York rather than returning to Providence. After a stint on the New York Mail and Express, he joined the Kiernan News Agency, which gathered news on Wall Street and distributed it by means of handwritten bulletins on thin paper known as "flimsies," which messenger boys scurried to deliver to clients throughout the day. He persuaded John Kiernan to hire a journalist friend from Providence, Eddie Jones, and before long the two were talking about starting their own news company. They did so in 1882, in large part with the financial help of a frugal Pennsylvania Dutchman named Charles Bergstresser, who also worked at Kiernan. Mr. Bergstresser was content to be a "silent partner" as well as a working journalist at the new Dow, Jones & Company.
While Jones and Bergstresser handled the "hard," breaking news, the professorial Dow began writing analytical pieces that were a new contribution to the Wall Street scene. He had two basic topics, the economy and the market, and he tended to view any other subject such as politics through those prisms. These pieces became more substantive as Dow Jones evolved from a bulletined news service into a newspaper publisher, first of the Customer’s Afternoon Letter in 1883 (basically a compilation of the day’s "flimsies") and then of The Wall Street Journal, beginning in 1889." By John Prestbo
"One further indication of Dow’s intimate familiarity with the Stock Exchange and the financial matters related to it is at least partially evidenced by the fact that for several years he personally was a member of that exclusive institution. The exhaustive research undertaken by Dr. George W. Bishop, Jr., in his effort to uncover every possible shred of information available regarding Charles H. Dow and the "Theory" which bears his name, reveals that, "on Christmas Eve, 1885, Dow became a member of the New York Stock Exchange and remained one until April 30, 1891, when the firm dissolved. Dow is not listed as a partner in the successor firm, Robert L. Goodbody & Company." "by Perry Greiner, 1963
Charles Dow hones his skills !
Charles Dow was a keen student of market behavior, and utilized his position as a financial journalist, and floor broker on the NYSE to observe successful traders, and to determine what they did to become winners in a game that most lose.
"After the founding the Dow, Jones, and Company, "the professorial Dow began writing analytical pieces that were a new contribution to the Wall Street scene. He had two basic topics, the economy and the market, and he tended to view any other subject such as politics through those prisms. These pieces became more substantive as Dow Jones evolved from a bulletined news service into a newspaper publisher, first of the Customer’s Afternoon Letter in 1883 (basically a compilation of the day’s "flimsies") and then of The Wall Street Journal, beginning in 1889."
"Dow needed something to represent the stock market in his analytical dissections of the economy and investor behavior. His simple solution was selecting several actively traded stocks and averaging their closing prices from time to time. He first used this device in the Customer’s Afternoon Letter of July 3, 1884, citing the average of eleven stocks, nine of which were railroads. Readers didn’t quarrel with Dow’s methodology, but they complained that he didn’t include enough stocks in his average, grumbling that echoes through the decades to today. Over the next three years he experimented with averages consisting of twenty and then thirty stocks. Then he noticed that however many stocks he was tracking, his averages all portrayed the important advances and declines in the market. The key wasn’t the number of stocks but selecting truly representative ones, which is equally true now."
"Though railroads were the mammoth corporations of the day, and thus dominated Dow’s early averages, he had his eye on a new, budding segment of the market: industrial companies. He observed, as he had in Leadville, the combining of smaller, proprietor-owned and family-run businesses into sizable corporate entities that sooner or later offered shares to public investors. He understood that this trend in time would create an industrial sector big enough to be the primary engine of US economic growth in the fast-approaching Twentieth Century. In the meantime, however, he couldn’t find more than two or three industrial stocks that attracted investor interest of the magnitude the railroads commanded."
We must realize that the railroads were the "market" in the late 1800’s, To talk of the Dow Transports confirming the Dow Industrials would have been absurd, as the Railroads were the market! Charles Dow couldn’t find enough industrials to put in an average! Later the Industrials gained prominence over the Railroads as the economy evolved (changed).
"The probable activity and possible investment value of US Steel will attract new attention to industrial properties," Dow wrote on the eve of adding the new giant’s stock to his industrial average. In time, he prophesized, "trading in railroad stocks will decrease and the industrial market will become the great market in Wall Street"
Charles Dow had already prophesized that trading in the railroad stocks would wane! Charles Dow knew that a company’s significance for inclusion into his average was its contribution to the economic machine!
Imagine Charles Dow’s shock to discover that a hamburger slinger (McDonalds), a big soda fountain franchise (Coke), some retailers, a big movie producer, and a bunch of golf course hustlers (insurance salesmen) are in the Dow Industrial Average. Despite this obvious reality, the Dow Theorists continue to demand confirmation by the Dow Transports.
They might be better off using student loans approved for the Apollo Group (APOL) customers, the new customer bookings at the Corrections Corporation of America (CCA), and the weekly sales at Starbucks, Krispy Kreme and Blockbuster Video. This group must be confirmed by the weekly lap dances produced report, the take at the local casinos, and the weekly Lotto sales report.
The great Charles Dow could foresee a time when the Industrials would supplant the Railroads, but his alleged students can’t see the lap dance in front of their noses! They seem adamant that the Transports must confirm the Industrials for a move to be valid.
"There is always a disposition in people’s minds to think the existing conditions will be permanent. When the market is down and dull, it is hard to make people believe that this is the prelude to a period of activity and advance. When prices are up and the country is prosperous, it is always said that while preceding booms have not lasted, there are circumstances connected with this one, which make it unlike its predecessors and give assurance of permanency. The one fact pertaining to all conditions is that they will change." Charles Henry Dow
We are deeply indebted to John Prestbo for the information about Charles Henry Dow’s history.
Wayne N. Krautkramer onlypill@cox.net http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade/id36.html
Posted at 02:53 am by onlypill
Permalink
Thursday, March 30, 2006
MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006)
Pitagoras Internacional SA. is proud to announce its new GOLD service.
We now offer MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006).
Yes, it’s finally here! You asked for it, and now you’ve got it.
What markets does the MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006) cover?
MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006) only concerns itself with the most probable future price movements in Gold.
The gold futures markets, and the gold ETF (GLD) are covered.
Gold is traded on the NYMEX, and the CBOT. For individuals who believe that the full size gold futures contracts (100 oz) are too much for them to handle, the gold mini futures contracts (33.2oz) are perfect.
The gold ETF (GLD) can be traded through any major online broker (Ameritrade, Etrade. etc.).
We avoid silver and platinum because of their liquidity problems in the futures markets.
We avoid gold stocks because using gold stocks as a vehicle complicates the decision process. It’s quite possible for gold to rise, yet the gold stocks to stay flat, or even lose value. This is because of all the other factors that affect mining firms (labor costs, supply problems, environmental hurdles, lawsuits, managerial incompentance, etc.).
We only know that gold bullion will rise or fall. We don’t know if gold stocks will match the moves in bullion.
The principle of KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid!) always rules in investments.
Subscribe now to the MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006) to see just how simple the service is to use!
MIDAS SAYS! (copyright 2006) took over four years of development before this service proved to be reliable and simple to use! Trial and error, with a lot of customer feedback from our other services, was utilized in the creation of MIDAS SAYS! (copyright 2006)
This service is designed for the serious gold investor/trader who knows how deceptive the currents of the market can be.
We know that you will need guidance from battle hardened professionals. The metals markets are now entering a very explosive phase of their cycle. We know how difficult these markets can be to a trader/investor.
How do we know?
Because we were there in the late 1970’s. Yes, we watched the Hunt Brothers fail and sink into one of the biggest personal bankruptcies in history. We watch many brokerage firms fail along with the Hunt Brothers. All the brokers that encouraged the Hunts to "get real stupid" went down right along with the Hunt brothers.
The irony of the Hunt’s fiasco is this. If only they had access to some decent trading counsel, they would have reversed their positions, gotten on the short side of the silver market, and become the wealthiest men in the world.
Armand Hammer, Chairman of Occidental Petroleum, sold silver short, and made $119,000,000 USD in less than three months! Had we only known then what we learned later, perhaps we could have talked to the Hunts. But it’s too late now for the Hunts!
Let the MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006) make sure that it’s not too late for you!
No, we can can’t bring you back to the late 1970s/ early 1980’s, but we can bring a technology based on those fortune making markets to you!
The question is, do you want some of the wealth that will be placed into the markets?
If you wish to "get your share", subscribe now to the MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006). The Hunt Brothers couldn’t subscribe, and they "gave their share" (billions of dollars)!
Just $41.76 USD/month secures your "share of their wealth". Someone like the Hunt Brothers is going to lose big. Let us help you "get your piece of the losers!" Subscribe now!
The MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006) is based on the BoomBust Cycle Point Predictor (Copyright 2006).
The traders with superior technology will reap enormous profits in the coming months. It’s time to separate the wheat from the chaff. Let the MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006) be your navigator on the oceans of wealth!
If you want information that is simple, unhedged, and timely, than MIDAS SAYS! (copyright 2006) is the service for you!
Subscribe now to get the "real" story on gold. Can you really afford not spend the less than $1.38 USD/day that secures your wealth information connection?
The "real" story on gold is based on the "unique" technology of the BoomBust Cycle Point Predictor (Copyright 2006).
It’s a lot easier to check your e-mail for clear, specific, instructions than spending both your mental energies and your time listening to broker fabrications, trade group press releases (puff pieces), and the articles written by authors with a hidden agenda to sabotage your success!
Let the MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006) remove that burden from you!
We promise that we won’t bore, confuse, or scare you by sending you lots of information that might be interesting, but irrelevant to your goal of maximizing your profits. We keep it simple, so you can conserve your valuable energies for other things!
MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006) only speaks when it’s time for gold to move up, down, or consolidate.
The MIDAS SAYS! (Copyright 2006) is $41.67USD/month for a six month subscription.
Clients are automatically billed $250.00USD at the beginning of each new six month cycle.
Posted at 02:24 am by onlypill
Permalink
POP GOES THE REAL ESTATE WEASEL! Part 3
POP GOES THE REAL ESTATE WEASEL! Part 3
This is the the third part of the Pop Goes The Real Estate Weasel Series. This part focuses on the key event behind the current Real Estate hysteria.
What has the Real Estate Industry has known since the late 1990’s?
Why has the Real Estate Industry been using the most absurd arguments to motivate buyers?
What do they hope that you don’t know? After all, if Real Estate really is a lay up, then the industry would be keeping it’s mouth shut, and quietly buying all they could! History proves that a group usually bad mouths an investment when they want to buy some "for their own account".
Conversely, they "manufacture" the most absurd sales pitches while making the most noise when they want to "unload" on the "unsuspecting" public. This is called "Ringing of the Dinner Bell’ or Marketing! The media depends on the advertisers for their revenue, so they must accommodate their customers (the advertisers) by publishing any and all articles that praise the product.
What’s the Story?
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is going to make you free from the hype of the National Association of Realtors!
How is the CME going to do this?
The CME is creating a futures market for single family housing!
This means the creation of a real data base for single family housing market values, based on the actual buying and selling on the CME.
Real buying and real selling with participants standing by with real money to buy or sell as the trend dictates is our idea of a market. This includes selling residential housing short to capitalize on overbought markets!
Why is the CME doing this?
Because they were asked to!
Who asked the CME to do this?
The "real" professionals in the Real Estate business
Just who are the "real" professionals in the Real Estate business?
The major home builders, the bankers, the mortgage brokers, the building material suppliers etc.
When is the CME going to do this?
On Tuesday, March 21, 2006, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Tradition Financial Services, together with Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss and Standard & Poor’s, announced the launch of S&P CME Housing Futures and Options.
According to the CNN Money article:
These derivatives will enable investors to take a position on the direction of home prices either for the nation as a whole or for 10 major cities to start, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. Of the three major asset classes, the bond, the stock and the housing markets, only the housing market, which represents some $20 trillion in assets, cannot be speculated on easily, said Robert Shiller, the Yale economist and author of "Irrational Exuberance," the 2000 book that foresaw the bursting of the tech-stock bubble. Shiller sees these derivatives mostly as tools that large, institutional investors can use to reduce risks. Mortgage bankers, for example, could hedge against falling real estate markets that would increase their exposure to delinquencies and foreclosures. But John Labuszewski, of the CME, says, "Although the main customers will be institutional, there is a surprising amount of interest on the part of retail consumers."
On March 21,2006, the CME threw a launch party at the Waldorf -Astoria , NYC. Reports indicate the party was well attended; "The place was totally packed. Institutional investors, investment banks, hedge funds, real estate developers, etc. were all there. Standing room only."
The introduction of trading is imminent. The CME anticipates the opening bell for trading will occur in April. The groundwork is complete, and the education of the professionals on the use of the futureshas just begun!
Where is the CME doing this?
The trading opportunities will be offered on CME Globex® Sundays-Thursdays 5:00 pm-2:00 pm the next day
What’s this going to cost the investors/hedgers at the CME?
The cost will depend on the value of the Index you are buying/selling.
The formula that the CME will use is the Index X $250USD/contract.
Let’s use the December 2005 Las Vegas Index of 229.47 as an example. This generates a $57,395.50 value. To buy or sell the index at this value for a $286,837.50USD house equivalent would be five contracts.
The commission cost to buy and sell five futures contracts would be $100.00 assuming a commission of $20.00USD/contract.
The commission cost of a house bought through a real estate broker (latest national average is 5.1 percent) would be $14,626.71USD.
The net difference is $14,526.71. or a savings of 99.3 percent!
The bizarre part of this is that fact that the CME will give you almost instant transactions, and confirmation of your orders.
The Real Estate hookup network may, or may not, find you a buyer/seller sometime in the future!
A question arises! Just what are these people being paid these outrageous commissions for?
How worried is the Real Estate Industry?
With all the hype for the Real Estate Industry over the last two years, this "Big Story " was drowned out! This is probably just a mere coincidence!
There is a big demand for this product, yet it has been given very little media coverage. The extreme case of media blackout would be in Clark County, Nevada. Las Vegas, with a hot housing market, has managed to censor all references to this new housing product.
The Las Vegas Review Journal ( the only real newspaper as the Las Vegas Sun is distributed by the LVRJ) has managed to keep almost a total blackout of the CME media launch for housing market futures!
The amazing thing about this media blackout is that Las Vegas is one of the Indexes that the CME has for the trading launch. One can only assume that Las Vegas will try to keep the real estate scam going till the bitter end!
The famous slogan "What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas" must be amended to "Stupid Is What Vegas Does" (Copyright applied for).
What does this mean to the investor?
There is a very real possibility that the housing market is finished, and the major institutions know it! That would explain the professional enthusiasm being shown for this new futures product!
The major players such as the government sponsored agency, Fannie Mae, know that they are in serious trouble if the housing market breaks apart. The same applies to the mortgage brokers, and the investment trusts holding all this real estate paper for income!
The major home builders, and the building materials suppliers also are in trouble should the housing market break.
The local government budgets are also threatened in the event of a major real estate price break.
We can foresee some serious short selling of the Housing Indexes as many of the players currently having too much risk decide to reduce their exposure by hedging! I personally know many individuals who are eager to hedge their financial risk by short sales of the Housing Index!
We know that the hedge funds could place big money on the short side of this market.
What we can prove is that the story that real estate cannot drop significantly for extended periods of time is totally refuted by an analysis of the Los Angeles Housing Index.
The Los Angeles Housing Index made a top at 100.23 in January of 1990, and didn’t make bottom until March of 1996 at 73.07. This data provided by the CME
That’s a 27 percent price decline that lasted six years and two months. I suggest that this qualifies as a Bear Market! This also occurred during the so-called immigrant invasion into California! Imagine what would happen to real estate if those illegals left California?
The CME may have just brought home ownership out of the Dark Ages. The availability of the Housing Index futures contract can protect the homeowners, the lenders who finance them, and the US taxpayers. We may all now have an opportunity to prosper in the real estate market. The availabilty of Housing Futures at CME commission rates (99.3 percent lower that the standard real estate hookup fee) will encourage many new participants. It just doesn’t get any better than this!
One Small Step for the CME, One Giant Gain for Homeownerkind! (Copyright applied for)
Wayne N. Krautkramer onlypill@cox.net Http://onlypill.tripod.com/factsthebrokersandfinancialreporterswonttellyou
The Pop Goes The Real Estate Weasel Series links are below:
Http://onlypill.tripod.com/generaleconomics/id26.htmlhttp://onlypill.tripod.com/generaleconomics/id26.htmlhttp://onlypill.tripod.com/factsthebrokersandfinancialreporterswonttellyou/id38.html
Posted at 01:48 am by onlypill
Permalink
Friday, November 18, 2005
MARKET MYTHS AND DECEPTIONS!
A recent article written by Doug Casey (The Speculator as a Hero), made many cogent points about market myths.
Casey’s best point was "The government itself will eventually be replaced and currency will become worthless. And there’s no way to truly protect against the risks of war, theft, fraud, and natural disaster. Investing for income—especially in today’s climate, when cracks can be seen in the foundations of society itself—is the height of stupidity."
Doug Casey’s article is the inspiration of this article!
MARKET MYTHS!
Taking the risk of alienating some readers, I must first invoke the words of a master speculator.
"In the long run .... we are all dead." - John Maynard Keynes.
Keynes brilliant record as an investor is demonstrated by the publicly available data of a fund he managed on behalf of King's College, Cambridge.
"From 1928 to 1945, despite taking a massive hit during the Stock Market Crash of 1929, Keynes' fund produced a very strong average increase of 13.2% compared with the general market in the United Kingdom declining by an average 0.5% per annum.
The approach generally adopted by Keynes with his investments he summarized accordingly:
1. A careful selection of a few investments having regard to their cheapness in relation to their probable actual and potential intrinsic value over a period of years ahead and in relation to alternative investments at the time;
2. A steadfast holding of these fairly large units through thick and thin, perhaps for several years, until either they have fulfilled their promise or it is evident that they were purchases on a mistake, and;
3. A balanced investment position, i.e, a variety of risks in spite of individual holdings being large, and if possible opposed risks (e.g. a holding of gold shares among other equities, since they are likely to move in opposite directions when there are general fluctuations).
Keynes argued that "It is a mistake to think one limits one's risks by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence ... One's knowledge and experience are definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time in which I personally feel myself to put full confidence."
"Keynes' advice on speculation, some might say, is timeless:
- (Investment is) intolerably boring and over-exacting to any one who is entirely exempt from the gambling instinct; whilst he who has it must pay to this propensity the appropriate toll.
When reviewing an important early work on equities investments, Keynes argued that "Well-managed industrial companies do not, as a rule, distribute to the shareholders the whole of their earned profits. In good years, if not in all years, they retain a part of their profits and put them back in the business. Thus there is an element of compound interest operating in favor of a sound industrial investment."
Therefore, according to the speculator who prospered through the Crash of 1929, there is no long run payoff in economics! A bemusing observation when one looks at Keynes long term track record! Business cycles virtually guarantee that you must lose, given the passage of enough time. Adam Smith talked about the "invisible hand", because Adam Smith understood the Great Wheel of Time. The laws of supply and demand, inter spiced with discontinuities from technological breakthroughs, wars, and natural disasters, virtually guarantee that no one technique can be successfully applied consistently.
We usually assume that governments can mitigate and defeat the changes in economics The politicians, and their mandarins (the bureaucrats and intellectuals), constantly propagandize their citizens with this deception!
There is no greater lie in existence!
All governments have defaulted on their debts (promises and or obligations). There is not one exception in history. It’s merely a question of time, because time guarantees that the politicians will pledge your children’s lives, and economic freedom, to the current greedy mob! They always have, and they always will. This occurs whether the government survives or not. It should be obvious that all governments eventually fail, or we would still be paying taxes to a Roman Emperor.
For those "innocents" who believe that the government has the power of immortality, please remember that Rome was the most powerful empire in history. Where are they now?Empty rhetoric does not impress the Great Wheel of Time! The British Empire’s bluff was called by first called by New England colonies, and later by Gandhi. The last big bad gas bag to pop was the USSR!
The bigger the collective mass, the sooner the funeral will occur. We have all agreed that the majority will must be served, will be your response! Yes, they must be served, but who are they? Certainly not the man in the street! Edward Bernays proved long ago that the majority of the people are just creations of the media. They believe and act just the way they are programmed by the pictures they see, and the words they hear from television, movies, and schools. Edward Bernays singlehandedly created your reality, or your world.
"The opinion of 10,000 men is of no value if none of them know anything about the subject." -- Marcus Aurelius
Doug Casey asks the question, "Why haven't any of the great millionaires of the past taken advantage of the simple gimmick of compound interest to eventually take over the world? (If the Indians had invested their $26 for the sale of Manhattan for a 5% compounded return, their money would be worth $2,790,729,193 today). It isn't because they haven't tried, I'm sure. It's because no investment will give you a true 5 percent for even the length of a lifetime. In fact, there's probably nothing that can be relied upon to yield even 3 percent over more than forty or fifty years. You might comment, "What difference does that make? I'm not going to be here that long." But it does make a difference, because it shows the futility of trying to stay ahead in any type of "secure" investment. Everything is a speculation, whether people know it or not; those who settle for a low but "secure" return are penny-wise and pound-foolish in the most profound sense.
When you settle for a "conservative" return, even the slightest miscalculation, bad luck, or government fiat can wipe you out. Taxes will always erode your capital, directly or indirectly. Inflation, for the foreseeable future, is sure to get worse and fluctuate wildly as it does. Banks and insurance companies—the very institutions that have always gotten away with offering low yields because they were so stable—will fail as they always have... especially given the current overvaluation of most U.S. real estate and the underlying loans that are looking increasingly shaky.
The government itself will eventually be replaced and currency will become worthless. And there's no way to truly protect against the risks of war, theft, fraud, and natural disaster. Investing for income—especially in today's climate, when cracks can be seen in the foundations of society itself—is the height of stupidity.
If you invest for income, you're handing over responsibility for your future to others. You don't know what they're doing with your money, you can't know how intelligently they're going to conduct themselves in the future, and you don't even really know how sound their capital position is. That's a bad enough set of fundamentals for a madcap gamble, but in return for a simple yield, it's absurd.
What, then, to do? What is the method to overcome this madness? The only answer I know of is to lay a solid financial foundation, and then gather up your cash and your courage and learn the art of speculation. "
Those seeking to learn more about the tools of sound speculating will find the following site:
http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade
Doug Casey asks the right question, and then gives the correct answer! What is his secret? Doug Casey lives in reality, and he knows better than to believe in the promises of mental defectives. Should you feel that this is too negative an answer, remember that a promise is only as good as the promisor's ability to deliver the goods. Promising to deliver the other guy’s goods to your voters works only as long as the victims tolerate this fraud!
Some will argue that this will go on until there is a bloody revolution. They would be wrong!
The only thing that has to occur is for the productive sector to scale back, and just produce for their own needs. The "surplus" that is being stolen to give to the "voters" automatically disappears, and the voters will then destroy their elected thugs! "Who Is John Galt?" is the speech that gives the solution. This is probably the most powerful rebuttal to the collective maw ever written!
Sir John Marks Templeton speaks on the cause of coming renunciation of all the promises!
KANGAS: Ok, but the gold stocks have been surging. Does this indicate trouble down the line? And wouldn’t they make good investments, or do you think that that bull market is over for gold?
TEMPLETON: No one ever knows when the market’s over, but the great boom in gold is more than half over. Let’s put it more broadly, Paul, that all currencies – not only the American dollar but all currencies – always go down, mainly because of democracy. The voters will vote for the person who is going to spend too much, and so you have to expect all currencies to go down. And just recently, America has started to spend too much, and the currency has already gone down a lot. But other nations now realize that, and they don’t want to lose out to America, so they let their money go down too.
One of the best investors in the world has spoken! Sir John Marks Templeton knows that you are going to default on all your obligations.
I’ll bet that Sir Alan Greenspan agrees with Sir John Marks Templeton! Your money and your investments have no positive long run!
DECEPTIONS!
For the purposes of this article, we define deceptions as those weapons of mass financial destruction utilized against you by financial marketing. Their high priest, Edward Bernays, developed most of the psychological techniques that Madison Avenue utilizes to condition you. Think of your television as a remote "Skinners Box". Movies, print media, and mandatory public school "conditioning" complete the box. Illusions, appeal to emotion, and Non sequiturs are the tactics that make marketing the bete noire of society!
As a pre-response to those who will allege that I’m overstating my case, I present the actual words of Bernays below:
Bernays (assistant to William Paley, head of CBS): Those who manipulate the organized habits and opinions of the masses constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country....we are dominated by a relatively small number of persons....as civilization has become more complex....the technical means have been invented and developed by which opinion may be regimented....I must lead the people. Am I not their servant?
. . .The invisible government tends to be concentrated in the hands of the few because of the expense of manipulating the social machinery which controls the opinions and habits of the masses.
. . .It is not generally realized to what extent the words and actions of our most influential public men are dictated by shrewd persons operating behind the scenes.
- Edward L. Bernays, PROPAGANDA
Bernays thinks! Therefore, you believe that you are!
Stocks, bonds, and futures are considered intangibles. Intangibles are an abstraction for most people.
Because there is little or no knowledge of the subject in the potential investor’s background, the dream merchants (Bernaysian wannabes) invoke images of wealth, success, and group approval when selling intangible. You buy this. You get rich. No problem. See your local broker now!
A classic example of financial marketing was the E.F. Hutton commercial of the 1980s.
"Well, my broker is EF Hutton, and EF Hutton says " (silence fills the room)
"When E. F. Hutton talks, people listen."
[Note: The E.F. Hutton brokerage firm is now defunct. The firm pled guilty to several thousand counts of mail and wire fraud in a check-kiting scheme. Read: Sudden Death: The Rise and Fall of E.F. Hutton by Mark Stevens (1989)]
Smith Barney had a great run with the slogan We make money the old fashioned way.
"We earn it" (John Houseman - spokesman).
Just what "we earn it" has to do with doing business with Smith Barney was never explained. One was supposed to assume that doing business with Merrill Lynch was not earning it!
Lest you believe that only the retail public is subjected to this subconscious manipulation, we must go back the Junk Bond debacle of the 1980s, compliments of Michael Milken, and Drexel Burnham Lambert, Inc., the leading purveyor of high yield junk bonds at the time.
" Drexel's 40-year-old senior executive vice president, Michael Milkin, was the undisputed junk bond wizard. A Phi Beta Kappa graduate of Berkeley and the Wharton School of Business, Milkin's personal wealth was estimated to be around $1 billion. He made Drexel the foremost purveyor of junk bonds. Operating out of swank offices on Beverly Hills' Rodeo Drive, and handling as many as 500 phone calls a day at his X-shaped desk, Milkin became a principal target of the SEC's insider-trading probe thanks to Boesky's cooperation with the investigation. In September 1988 the SEC filed a 184-page complaint against Drexel. Manhattan's U.S. District Attorney Rudy Guliani hit Drexel and Milkin with racketeering charges under the 1970 RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) statute. On December 21, Drexel pled guilty to six felony counts of mail, wire and securities fraud, paid a $650 million settlement fee, and fired Michael Milkin. The cases against Drexel and its young junk bond king revolved around charges that secret arrangements were made with Boesky and others to defraud Drexel's clients. Two months later, in Wall Street's biggest criminal prosecution ever, 98 indictments of fraud and racketeering were brought against Milkin. On April 14, 1990 Milkin was sentenced to ten years in jail and agreed to pay $600 million in fines."
The funniest part of this fraud is that it was worked on Harvard, Wharton, and MIT MBAs who were "professional money managers". Yes, the mutual funds, and pension funds, went for this scam hook, line, and sinker! They should be complimented on doing one thing right. They had the good sense to confine the losses to everybody else’s money
Long Term Capital Management is one of the more recent debacles that caught the elite money managers! Remember that these money mangers were the creme de la creme of the system, complete with two Nobel laureates (prize winners)! The best and the brighest strike again. Robert Mcnamara and the Whiz Kids gave us Vietnam. LTCM gave us a bond market debacle so devastating that Alan and his merry Band of Federal Reservists came to the rescue, bailing out the entire Western world’s financial system.Alan was later knighted by the Queen of England.Sir Alan Greenspan took his place beside Sir Ronald Reagan, and Sir George Bush Sr. America is being taken over by the Tories.
The real question is "Can we afford more of the System’s best?"
Let us not forget the Baring Bank Fiasco!
"The collapse of Britain's Barings Bank in February 1995 is perhaps the quintessential tale of financial risk management gone wrong. The failure was completely unexpected. Over a course of days, the bank went from apparent strength to bankruptcy. Barings was Britain's oldest merchant bank. It had financed the Napoleonic wars, the Louisiana purchase, and the Erie Canal. Barings was the Queen's bank. What really grabbed the world's attention was the fact that the failure was caused by the actions of a single trader based at a small office in Singapore."
SUMMARY
The evidence is overwhelming that successful investing is a little more difficult that sending your money to a money manager, or listening to a broker.
Even a seasoned pro like Jim Rogers has found himself entangled in the current debacle at Refco.
All the Kings Horses, and all the Kings men, can’t make another Keynes again!
Times are hard for everybody these days!
The Charge of the Individual Investor! copyright by WNK 2005
PhDs to the left, MBAs to the right, the Queen’s banks at your rear, and the parasites tax collectors in the front! .... Onward rode the mighty individual investor, forcing the brokers to run in the night!
What can one do to protect oneself in this financial freak show? Who is one supposed to believe? What is one supposed to believe? What must one know?
I must again quote Doug Casey. "If you invest for income, you're handing over responsibility for your future to others. You don't know what they're doing with your money, you can't know how intelligently they're going to conduct themselves in the future, and you don't even really know how sound their capital position is. That's a bad enough set of fundamentals for a madcap gamble, but in return for a simple yield, it's absurd.
What, then, to do? What is the method to overcome this madness? The only answer I know of is to lay a solid financial foundation, and then gather up your cash and your courage and learn the art of speculation. "
Learn the market skills that have lasted through the centuries. Read the classic books on markets and speculation. Always read the books written before the 1940s, as that is when modern marketing (Bernays’s spin) began it’s subtle manipulations. You want to read what was written by successful people who spoke in plain language, without resort to meaningless statistics, and history defying premises.
Reject all techniques that cannot be verified over long periods of history. Remember curve fitters will always find a short period of time when any and all premises were valid But of what use are these techniques to the investor? Curve fitting was the trick that caused the Junk Bond debacle of the 1980’s. Market conditions will change, and you (the investor) will be stuck with the losses. Computer models wiped out Long Term Capital Management in spite of their Nobel prize winning geniuses overseeing this debacle. This suggests that we must look elsewhere for the answer.
Suggested Reading
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefvre
Forty-Five Years in Wall Street by W. D. Gann
New Stock Trend Detector by: Gann, W. D.
How to Make Profits Trading Commodities by W D Gann
Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay
The Crowd, Study of Popular Mind by Gustave le Bon
A site with articles to assist you in your quest for financial freedom can be found at: http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade/
Articles discussing the facts that the brokers and the media hide from you can be found at http://onlypill.tripod.com/factsthebrokersandfinancialreporterswonttellyou/
The truth is free! But will you listen to it is the question?
These books are not to read casually, but to be studied, understood, and absorbed into your subconscious mind. This will purge most of the Bernaysian subliminal programming from your investment decisions! Lefvre, Mackay and Gustave le Bon are the antidotes for the programming. Gann will teach you some basic concepts that are battle proven. Gann also documents how Wall Street (Sons of Bernays) uses the media to take your money! Lefrve, and Ed Seykota confirm this observation..
Enjoy the reading, and Good Hunting when you have learned. So many sheep, so few wolves!
"Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway." by Warren Buffett
Wayne N. Krautkramer onlypill@cox.net
http://onlypill.tripod.com/factsthebrokersandfinancialreporterswonttellyou/
Posted at 02:19 pm by onlypill
Permalink
Sunday, July 03, 2005
Welcome to The Battle For your Money and Your Mind! The Perpetual War!
We are in a perpetual War. We must understand what war is to be effective in dealing with our adversary’s strategy. War is the battle for power, or dominance. This is nature’s directive to ensure the survival of the species. It’s as natural as life and death, and it’s an inescapable fact of life.
We are a social species! This means that the real war is fought on the intellectual, and the social level. Ideas, or concepts, is the way we make war. Every word has a denotation, and a connotation.
Those who teach you the denotation of a word control the symbol (picture) that you see in your mind when that word is used. The connotation of a word is the emotional meaning attributed to a word (good, bad, nice, mean). When someone controls the pictures you associate with a word, they control your mind! This is where the real battle is fought to control the Homo Sapiens!
You might ask, what does a word really mean?
"When I use a word it means exactly what I want it to mean, nothing more and nothing less."
If we would learn the true nature of war, we will stop reacting to our adversary’s wiles. We have wasted our precious resources in foolish skirmishes, which have ending badly. The Korean and Vietnam conflicts should have taught us to avoid unwinnable wars. However, the next generation only knows its conditioning. They have no real experience with which they might challenge the foolishness of the Wizard of Oz., the fantasy of his favorite stepchild, Disneyland, or the programming from the public school system! The victims of the media, and the school systems, are just conditioned organisms. The products of the system will react in a predictable way to the words (symbols) that are invoked! This is the perpetual war.
Hostilities only commence as the almost vanquished nation strikes out in agony (a mass psychotic event). Competent people would never let events go this far. The objective of free people is to avoid all entanglements with nations, and cultures, that are freedom phobic. Freedom phobic is defined here as those who are collectivist by heritage, or instinct. Most of the world adheres to a collectivist ethic The reality is that all these cultures, and nations, are the natural enemies of freedom.
The Stages of War.
The Social Battlefield.
This is the real arena for war. Democratic societies are forever embroiled in social conflict, as the various special interest groups seek to achieve the "moral high ground". Morality is relative in the social arena, because the majority of the electorate lack the training, experience, or instincts to evaluate the merits of an idea.
True morality (survival value) is the minimum requirement for a society’s survival. Without knowledge of the survival requirements, the voters will follow their emotions! "If it feels good, what’s wrong with it?"
Any legislation not based on true morality (survival value) will lead that society into extinction. The classical republics only allowed property owners to vote. The founders of the great republics knew that only people with a strong connection to the republic could be entrusted with the power of the vote. Military service was always mandatory for citizens to prevent intellectual dilettantes from voting for conflicts that might weaken that nation. Intellectuals are proficient at sending the other man (Alpha man) into a conflict, while these personal pacifists (Omega man) always seem to have an exemption from combat!
We must remember that deceits and treacheries are the primary weapons of war. Illusions, propaganda, and fraud will always be employed against the free state. The more freer the nation, the more often these tactics will be used against that nation.
"All war is based on deception." -- Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Propaganda to enlarge the voting franchise has always been a tactic employed by the adversaries of a free nation. Propaganda is the tactic that conditions a society to eventually vote itself into extinction! The adversary uses different words that sound more noble to describe each "new social improvement". All new propaganda is nonsense to the current generation of voters. Then the years of Pavlovian, and Skinnerian conditioning by the public schools, and the media do their job. The system virtually guarantees that the next generation of voters will believe that the old "absurd" propaganda is "mother’s milk".
If you think that this is just a coincidence, read II -- PROLETARIANS AND COMMUNISTS, Communist Manifesto, 1848, Karl Marx
10. Free education for all children in public schools.
The alien’s strategy is to plant the seeds of extinction into your nation, nurture them through the taxpayer financed public schools, and the media, and then harvest the crop by invoking the programmed keywords. This ensures the outcome of their collectivist vision, as the logic pathways of the electorate have been neutralized, or electronically lobotomized. Hence, no rational dialogue will interfere with the outcome. Your adversaries have been busy, creating the new superstitions that will govern our nation when the new generation comes to power! The brilliance of this tactic is that you finance the institutions that program your children to destroy your culture, and your economy.
"Rituals are superstitions; they are adventitiously reinforced. The more conspicuous and stereotyped the behavior upon which the reinforcer is accidentally contingent, the greater the effect." -- Skinner, B. F. (1980), Notebooks, 303-304.
The Diversion The Military Conflicts
The military conflicts are just part of the diversion. If the targeted country goes for the bait, it will dispatch its most masculine men to go to slaughter. They will be destroyed in a conflict that has been designed to fail. This is easily achieved by defining the terms of engagement (combat rules) so as to guarantee failure. The real purpose of the exercise is to kill, or cripple, as many of our alpha males as is politically acceptable. This reduces the number of alpha males, and leaves the omega (passive) males as the only check against the emoting nature of the female. This war of attrition against the alpha males gradually removes a nation’s ability to act independently of other nation’s opinions, because self sovereignty is a patriarchal trait.
The rise of the matriarchy is guaranteed over time. The gradual change of values that occurs as the nation moves from a patriarchy to a matriarchy ensures that more socialist programs are demanded by the voters. With the creation of each new generation, more wars are started to liquidate the new alpha males, but all of the women remain. This further skews the voting pattern by increasing the percentage of female voters versus male voters. A good war can really decimate the alpha male population.
The joke is that the legislators have become totally captive to the wants of a militant welfare society, although the euphemism "entitlement "appears to conceal the obvious. There is nothing more frightening to a politician than having to work for a living. By the time a nation has devolved to this condition, the politicians are nothing but overpriced hamburger flippers.
"Do you want Pork with your Burgers and Fries?"
The other result is the slow, but relentless disarmament of the population by the government. The men who know how to use weapons are slowly slaughtered, or crippled, by wars. Because ego is a constant in human nature, many of the males who copped out from combat rationalize their decision by embracing a non-aggressive, anti-gun, psychological posture. Everyone is a victim in a non- judgmental society! Psychopaths, and sociopaths, are miraculously transmuted into good children doing bad things. This attitude becomes inoculated into the society at large as right thinking! This attitude then becomes promoted by the media, and the public schools, as enlightenment!
The other subtle effect of these military conflicts is to convince the population that fighting is futile. They now actually believe that conflicts are unwinnable. It is a just a cleaver version of "Better Red Than Dead".
To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.
-Sun Tzu, the Art of War
The Economic War
This is the second stage of the destruction of a nation. The objective of war is to destroy your opponent’s ability to make war. The economic war gradually reduces a nation into a state of poverty. Once this is accomplished, even the will to prevail is just another delusion. The nation will be reduced to guerilla warfare, as the street gangs take control of the inner cities. You thought they were just friendly drug dealers, providing "Mother’s Little Helper"! They rule you through your needs, so you can’t control their deeds.!
You’re so proud of your strategic nuclear and biological weapons! It’s a damn shame that you can’t use these weapons on the drug dealers, and the street gangs, because your connection is in your neighborhood. You are in total delusion, as your nation is already bankrupt, demoralized, and probably nearing a state of civil war at this time. Live with it! Your nation is already dysfunctional. Your real enemy is as near as your mirror. Therefore, you have already lost!
The nation is first bankrupted by insane social policies financed by debt to hide the real costs. Soon the number of people on the government payrolls, and the number of the entitlement recipients, outnumber the wealth producers. The government must now depreciate its currency at ever faster rates. This is mandatory to avoid the obvious confiscatory taxes that would be implemented otherwise. Many wealth producers would balk at 90 to 95 percent tax rates.
The government also uses its reputation to issue massive amounts of debt. The rule that it takes 10 years to make a reputation, and 20 years to lose it applies here. The government knows that it will be given the benefit of the doubt long past the point of insanity. It also knows the golden rule of debt. When you owe someone enough money, the lenders have really made an equity investment in you, instead of a loan. Who wants to walk away from megalosses? This automatically gains the government more time. There is also the fallacy that big countries can’t fail.
The government now begins creating military adventures to transfer money to their contributors from the defense contractor industry. This spends up the process of looting the host nation, and allows more money to be stuffed into their offshore banks. More control of the media is justified by the "crisis", which slows down the speed at which the information circulates! This gains more time for the government to plunder the treasury prior to the citizen’s response.
Just the principle of paying women to have children guarantees that the nation will be overrun with non-producers with a militant attitude. "You owe us our entitlements because we voted for you" is the battle hymn of the majority of the voters." The political system has turned into a circus by this time, in a desperate attempt to avoid a civil war. The pressure on the politicians is enormous to give an ever increasing amount of money, and services to an ever more militant nation of parasites.
Lest you think that I’m overstating the argument, you will find it instructive to learn that prison inmates have been receiving federal tax refunds while incarcerated. No, I’m not making this up! Prison inmates have been receiving tax refunds for taxes paid while employed. The problem is that these prisoners are incarcerated, and could not have been employed. Yet the IRS has been sending them checks.
The current spectacle of reparations being paid to various groups because of some past injustice is more of the absurdity of the entitlement culture. The people who committed these acts are long gone. Let’s steal more wealth from the living to mollify the leeches! We can always issue more bonds that are worthless. We can’t really feel sorry for the idiots who are buying these bonds. The Keynesians told us that we never have to repay the debt! "What, Me Worry?"
Abraham Lincoln paved the way to total collectivism by destroying the Republic. State Right’s were the most critical check on the natural rapaciousness of a centralized government. The end of States Rights effectively canceled the Constitution, if not de jure, then certainly de facto. The post Civil War era witnessed the parasites flocking to Washington.
The Republican President, Ulysses S. Grant, signed the Pendelton Act in 1883.
BACKGROUNDER ON THE PENDLETON ACT
"The federal bureaucracy in the years after the Civil War was generally undistinguished, because the system of selecting officials and supervising their work was irrational. That system had evolved in the early nineteenth century, and relied on the well-known political adage, "to the victor belong the spoils." That did not necessarily mean that bad people were appointed; many government officials were quite good, but the system itself was ill-suited to efficiency."
"The idea of rotation in office, however, was thought to be "democratic." Andrew Jackson in 1829 had declared: "No man has any more intrinsic right to official station than another. The duties of all public officers are, or at least admit of being made, so plain and simple that men of intelligence may readily qualify themselves for their performance." This had not been true in 1829, and was certainly not true fifty years later. The constant turnover provided no institutional memory; government workers panicked at every election and had little sense of loyalty to their jobs, because their tenure was often of such short duration. As Henry Clay put it, government officials after an election are "like the inhabitants of Cairo when the plague breaks out; no one knows who is next to encounter the stroke of death.""
"Over the years, the flaws became more serious and obvious. Political leaders required their patronage appointees to devote time and money to party affairs. After each election, winners were besieged by hungry office-seekers, and wrangling between the president and Congress over patronage became endemic. By the 1880s, one could open a Washington newspaper after an election and find many advertisements like this one:
"WANTED -- A GOVERNMENT CLERKSHIP at a salary of not less than $1,000 per annum. Will give $100 to any one securing me such a position.""
"The situation was compounded by the growth of the federal bureaucracy. In Jackson’s time there had been 20,000 persons on the federal payroll. By end of the Civil War the number had increased to 53,000; by 1884, 131,000; and by 1891, 166,000. Presidents were hounded by office- seekers. When James Garfield became president he discovered hungry office-seekers "lying in wait" for him "like vultures for a wounded bison."
Moreover, new government jobs required special skills. The use of typewriters, introduced in the early 1880s, meant that mere literacy and decent penmanship were no longer enough for a clerk’s job. With the creation of administrative agencies like the Interstate Commerce Commission and specialized agricultural bureaus, one needed scientific expertise. The spoils system was not the way to get them.
A civil service movement started in New York in 1877, and although it developed considerable public support, the politicians refused to go along. Then came the assassination of President Garfield by Charles Guiteau, a disappointed office-seeker, and the public clamor could no longer be ignored.
The Pendleton Act classified certain jobs, removed them from the patronage ranks, and set up a Civil Service Commission to administer a system based on merit rather than political connections. As the classified list was expanded over the years, it provided the American people with a competent and permanent government bureaucracy. In 1883 fewer than 15,000 jobs were classified; by the time McKinley became president in 1897, 86,000 -- almost half of all federal employees -- were in classified positions. Today, with the exception of a few thousand policy-level appointments, nearly all federal jobs are handled within the civil service system."
For further reading: Ari Hoogenboom, Outlawing the Spoils: A History of the Civil Serivce Reform Movement, 1865-1883 (1961); Paul P. Van Riper, Hstory of the United States Civil Service (1958).
Time has revealed the strategy that the alien’s have utilized against us. The establishment of the Civil Service was the first step in turning the US into a nation of slaves. We now had an "elite " group of parasites who are tenured, and who receive a lifetime dole from the taxpayers. The Civil Service’s loyalty is to the intellectuals who direct their efforts into the establishment of a collectivist utopia. Even the politicians can not fire a Civil Servant. Civil Servants are not elected, and are not subject to the voter’s will. They are the "real" government!
The danger of the election of a president, and legislature, with a real pro taxpayer agenda, has already been defeated. The Civil Service will just ignore the new occupants of the Executive Branch, and the Legislature. The Civil Service system guarantees that the bureaucracy will continue on, just as their collectivist masters have programmed them! They are sovereign, and can never be terminated unless they murder someone! This tactic ensures that there will never be an interruption of the collectivist agenda. Their real motto is "So many people to enslave, so little time in power!"
The very concept Civil Servant was the beginning of Orwellian doublespeak. The irony was that George Orwell wasn’t born yet.
Eric Blair was born in India in 1903. Educated in England at Eton, he moved to Burma in 1922 where he joined the Indian Imperial Police for five years. He eventually resigned because of his increasing disillusionment with British imperialism.
Eric Blair is George Orwell. He was forced to write under a pseudonym to prevent the Imperialists from destroying him. The English Crown (the City of London) is the headquarters of the western world.
After the establishment of the Civil Service, the collectivist’s moved to increase the voting franchise. Women were given the right to vote (1920) only after the collectivist’s had achieved control of the government bureaucracies.
Woodrow Wilson (a past president of Princeton University) was the next key Collectivist. His presidency was bought so that he could create the Federal Reserve Bank, the Income Tax, and the Selective Service Act of 1917. He also brought us into World War I.
The US entered WW1 to assure the elimination of many Alpha males, and to start the conditioning process to bring the US citizens into their new role as state slaves.
The final destruction of liberty occurred under Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Most of his Marxist ideas were initially struck down by the Supreme Court. He proceeded to alter the legal environment. FDR knew that his threat to stack the Supreme Court with his collectivist coterie would bring the Supreme Court into total compliance with his wishes. FDR made the correct assumption! He bet that these parasites would do anything to stay on the federal dole! The irony of the Supreme Court’s capitulation to FDR, is that FDR later managed to pick eight more Supreme Court judges. His time as president was so long (four terms) that he appointed nine judges! FDR delivered the coup de grace to free speech when he forced the Supreme Court to give the ownership of the airwaves to the government in 1934.
It’s probably just a coincidence that government control of all communication is number 6 in II -- PROLETARIANS AND COMMUNISTS, Communist Manifesto, 1848, Karl Marx
Federal judges, including Supreme Court justices, have what amounts to lifetime tenure and a guaranteed salary. Although justices can theoretically be removed from office by impeachment, none ever has been removed The last time Congress attempted to pull this off was two centuries ago. The attempt failed, in the process proving the point that little short of criminal behavior could result in judicial removal. Political views —especially personal judicial views— are plainly off limits to those who might wish to impeach a hostile jurist. Congress can overturn Supreme Court decisions only by means of the cumbersome process of constitutional amendment. Such efforts have succeeded exactly four times in the history of the republic. In each instance, it was the Supreme Court that determined the meaning and application of the amendment. Catch 22 strikes again!
This reality ensures that no incoming President could get rid of these collectivists without the majority support of the Congress. Thus, we began the new world under an activist court. This was another brilliant move by the collectivists. The Hive’s media, and its public schools, praise the concept of an activist court to their listeners (victims)! According to the Constitution, only the Congress can create a law. The Supreme Court’s only constitutionally granted power is to determine whether a law is constitutional or not! The Court has no legal right to order anything, except lunch.
The media collectivists are continually creating new more stories to feed the folk. These people are professionals at creating stories. Rewriting all those history books has given them a lot of practice They can count on the support of the public schools to preach the" new" and "improved" history with great enthusiasm. By the time the WW1 was over, there was no point to reading history books. "History is more or less bunk." Henry Ford, May 25th, 1916
The irony is that the Hive’s reforms (always new and improved) claimed that Civil Service would prevent money from being stolen from the government. Now we see the spectacle of the government looters diverting all this money to their friends, while voting themselves huge salaries, and benefit packages. The comic part of this is realizing that these bureaucrats, and politicians, are deluded enough to believe that the wealth creating sector can, or will, continue to pay for this giant theft machine. It’s amazing that so many government workers have dual passports, and are citizens of a nation that refuses to extradite their citizens to any other country to face trial. I believe that we have a big conflict of interest here!
We have to admit that the government workers, and the politicians, are just plundering before the end. They know that the cupboard is getting a little bare! The voters appear to be indifferent to the rampant theft, as long as they get their entitlements. Election after election has shown that taxing the productive, and spending on pork for the folk, is the winning combination in politics. This allows the politicians to avoid the effort of personally creating wealth. Politicians generally abhor the stress of working, and would rather steal the wealth of others via taxes. They give the looted money to their constituencies, less a large service and handling charge!
2. A heavy progressive or graduated income tax. II -- PROLETARIANS AND COMMUNISTS, Communist Manifesto, 1848, Karl Marx
On the 23 of June, 2005, the Supreme Court of the United States of America ruled against the last illusion of property rights. This latest incroachment upon our constitutional guarantees opens the door for complete confiscation by the government. The government will become more predatory as their need for money continues to accelerate. Gone are the days when they slowly sucked you dry through property taxes. Now they take your property even if you have paid the taxes! They have shown their hand, and have already begun to grab your land!
1. Abolition of property in land and application of all rents of land to public purposes. II -- PROLETARIANS AND COMMUNISTS, Communist Manifesto, 1848, Karl Marx
"In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way."
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Why are we suprised that so many companies, and talented people, are fleeing this vampire nation?These valuable resources are voting with their feet. The best would rather start anew, where they have found a saner society. The ultimate irony is watching the US compete with Sweden in the race to economic oblivion! We will win the Economic Doomsday Cup, even if it means destroying ourselves!
"Vampirism as the ultimate form of communism, in which blood is redistributed from producers to parasites." Thomas M. Sipos, Vampire Nation.
You know that it’s a vampire nation when the Hive demands Dignity with their Dole!
Wayne N. Krautkramer
Onlypill@cox.net
onlypill.tripod.com
Posted at 09:27 pm by onlypill
Permalink
Wednesday, June 29, 2005
ESCAPE THE RETIREMENT ACCOUNT TRAP!
Your retirement account is becoming the most important asset you have.
Your financial security is now up to you! You must escape the 401(k) and IRA trap!
Our special report shows you what the trap is, and how to escape the trap
With pensions failing, or massively underfunded, you are left with home equity, Social Security, and your retirement accounts.
How fast can you sell your home in a financial debacle? Your equity can vanish prior to the sale!
Social Security is in financial trouble. Major changes are being made even now!
The only assets that you have that are liquid, and under your control, are your 401(k) and your IRA. You must maximize the return of your retirement accounts.
This special report is probably the best investment you can make at this time
After reading this report, you will know how to escape the trap the government set for you.
Buy this report now before the trap starts to close.
Only $19.95 , and a chance to win a free month of the famous BoomBust Cycle Point Predictor*!
You will thank youself for ordering this report now!
* If you purchase the special report on the Trap for retirement accounts before September 1st, 2005, you will be entered into a drawing for one free month of the famous BoomBust Cycle Point Predictor!
TO ORDER GO TO: onlypill.tripod.com, or, onlypill@cox.net |
Posted at 11:37 pm by onlypill
Permalink
America Created It's Own Money in 1750
|
America Created It's Own Money in 1750
How Benjamin Franklin Made New England Prosperous
Copyright © 1941
by Congressman Charles G. Binderup
The following historical story is taken from a radio address given by Congressman Charles G. Binderup of Nebraska, some 50 years ago and was reprinted in Unrobing the Ghosts of Wall Street:
Colonies More Prosperous Than The Home Country
Before the American War for Independence in 1776, the colonized part of what is today the United States of America was a possession of England. It was called New England, and was made up of 13 colonies, which became the first 13 states of the great Republic. Around 1750, this New England was very prosperous. Benjamin Franklin was able to write:
"There was abundance in the Colonies, and peace was reigning on every border. It was difficult, and even impossible, to find a happier and more prosperous nation on all the surface of the globe. Comfort was prevailing in every home. The people, in general, kept the highest moral standards, and education was widely spread."
When Benjamin Franklin went over to England to represent the interests of the Colonies, he saw a completely different situation: the working population of this country was gnawed by hunger and poverty. "The streets are covered with beggars and tramps," he wrote. He asked his English friends how England, with all its wealth, could have so much poverty among its working classes.
His friends replied that England was a prey to a terrible condition: it had too many workers! The rich said they were already overburdened with taxes, and could not pay more to relieve the needs and poverty of this mass of workers. Several rich Englishmen of that time actually believed, along with Mathus, that wars and plague were necessary to rid the country from man-power surpluses.
Franklin's friends then asked him how the American Colonies managed to collect enough money to support their poor houses, and how they could overcome this plague of pauperism. Franklin replied:
"We have no poor houses in the Colonies; and if we had some, there would be nobody to put in them, since there is, in the Colonies, not a single unemployed person, neither beggars nor tramps."
Thanks To Free Money Issued By The Nation
His friends could not believe their ears, and even less understand this fact, since when the English poor houses and jails became too cluttered, England shipped these poor wretches and down-and- outs, like cattle, and discharged, on the quays of the Colonies, those who had survived the poverty, dirtiness and privations of the journey. At that time, England was throwing into jail those who could not pay their debts. They therefore asked Franklin how he could explain the remarkable prosperity of the New England Colonies. Franklin replied:
"That is simple. In the Colonies, we issue our own paper money. It is called 'Colonial Scrip.' We issue it in proper proportion to make the goods and pass easily from the producers to the consumers. In this manner, creating ourselves our own paper money, we control its purchasing power and we have no interest to pay to no one."
The Bankers Impose Poverty
The information came to the knowledge of the English Bankers, and held their attention. They immediately took the necessary steps to have the British Parliament to pass a law that prohibited the Colonies from using their scrip money, and then ordered them to use only the gold and silver money that was provided in sufficient quantity by the English bankers. Then began in America the plague of debt-money, which has never since brought so many curses to the American people.
The first law was passed in 1751, and then completed by a more restrictive law in 1763. Franklin reported that one year after the implementation of this prohibition on Colonial money, the streets of the Colonies were filled with unemployment and beggars, just like in England, because there was not enough money to pay for the goods and work. The circulating medium of exchange had been reduced by half.
Franklin added that this was the original cause of the American Revolution - and not the tax on tea nor the Stamp Act, as it has been taught again and again in history books. The financiers always manage to have removed from school books all that can throw light on their own schemes, and damage the glow that protects their power.
Franklin, who was one of the chief architects of the American independence, wrote it clearly:
"The Colonies would gladly have borne the little tax on tea and other matters had it not been the poverty caused by the bad influence of the English bankers on the Parliament, which has caused in the Colonies hatred of England and the Revolutionary War."
This point of view of Franklin was confirmed by great statesmen of his era: John Adams, Jefferson, and several others. A remarkable English historian, John Twells, wrote, speaking of the money of the Colonies, the Colonial Scrip:
"It was the monetary system under which America's Colonies flourished to such an extent that Edmund Burke was able to write about them: 'Nothing in the history of the world resembles their progress. It was a sound and beneficial system, and its effects led to the happiness of the people.'" John Twells adds:
"In a bad hour, the British Parliament took away from America its representative money, forbade any further issue of bills of credit, these bills ceasing to be legal tender, and ordered that all taxes should be paid in coins. Consider now the consequences: this restriction of the medium of exchange paralyzed all the industrial energies of the people. Ruin took place in these once flourishing Colonies; most rigorous distress visited every family and every business, discontent became desperation, and reached a point, to use the words of Dr. Johnson, when human nature rises up and assets its rights."
Another writer, Peter Cooper, expresses himself along the same lines. After having said how Franklin had explained to the London Parliament the cause of the prosperity of the Colonies, he wrote:
"After Franklin gave explanations on the true cause of the prosperity of the Colonies, the Parliament exacted laws forbidding the use of this money in the payment of taxes. This decision brought so many drawbacks and so much poverty to the people that it was the main cause of the Revolution. The suppression of the Colonial money was a much more important reason for the general uprising than the Tea and Stamp Act."
Today, in America as well as in Europe, we are under the regime of the Scrip of the Bankers instead of the scrip of the nation. Hence the public debts, everlasting interest charges, taxes that plunder purchasing power, with the only result being a consolidation of the financial dictatorship.
There is only one cure for America's ultimate financial collapse and that is for Congress to exercise Clause 30 of the "Federal" Reserve Act, buy the outstanding shares of stock, shut down this unconstitutional system and sell off their assets to reimburse the people of this nation for this unspeakable theft of their wealth. This is the first installment of postings on this issue, new ones will be put up as soon as manpower allows.
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
|
The English Crown ( The City Of London) sucked the 13 colonies dry. And they are still sucking. It's their nature! Learn who owns, and controls, the Federal Reserve Banks! And no, they are not a US Government agency .
TANSTAAFL! "There Ain't No Such Thing As a Free Lunch". Robert Heinlein's classic "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
|
|
|
 |
 |
Posted at 09:21 pm by onlypill
Permalink
Monday, June 20, 2005
A NEW FEDERAL AGENCY FOR A NEW ECONOMY! AN IDEA WHOSE TIME HAS COME!
We need a permanent economic stimulus generator in this time of financial trepidation!
Too many Americans are feeling financial angst. Uncertainty breeds fear, and fear slows consumption. We must eliminate the tyranny of uncertainty from our shores forever!
As Franklin Delano Roosevelt said, "we have nothing to fear but fear itself!"
It is time for The Agency For The Enablement of Consuming!
This new and necessary agency’s primary mission will be to provide perpetual stimulus for the economy.
This agency will also guarantee the consumer with the security and dignity befitting their true contribution to global job creation.
Finally, the professional consumer will be recognized for their heroic efforts on the behalf of those who do not have talent to be true consumers.
Never again will Americans have to tolerate the tedium and stress associated with working. Let the populations of other nations do the working. We have evolved beyond being mere workers. In this era of global competition, Americans must do what we do best. Americans are the best at shopping, creating codependent support groups, and doing lunch.
We ask all to come together to insure that the Congress creates this vital agency. This is a "now" agency for a N.O.W. nation!
Powers Granted to The Agency For Enablement Of Consuming
This new federal agency will be empowered to guarantee complete total financing of all consumers. This agency’s authority will insure that the economy maintains a minimum growth rate of twenty percent per annum.
This agency will have authority over the bankruptcy laws of the United States. Any time the Consumer Confidence Index drops below 95 percent, this agency is empowered to dissolve all consumer mortgage and credit card debt.
This new agency will forever remove uncertainty over the future for the professional consumer by providing pensions and medical insurance for all qualified consumers. This is in addition to an entitlement of $2500 per month for living expenses for a single consumer. Each dependent will increase the consumer's entitlement by $750 per month, up to a maximum of $10,000 per month.
The accumulated psychic damages from prior generation's attitudes towards minorities are automatically redressed by the authority granted this new agency. All victims of persecution (both prior and current generations) will receive double the monthly entitlement allowed to white males, and their families. However, mixed marriages will receive a special bonus consumption allotment for assisting in our nation's goal of diversity!
This agency also redresses the physical and mental risks of consuming that have been traditionally borne by women throughout history. Should a woman have a physical or mental breakdown while consuming for her country, the business owners that caused this event will be subject to a $1,000,000 fine and payment of all expenses necessary for her complete physical and psychic recovery. This new agency will guarantee that no woman will ever again be subjected to any stress which might impair her consumption function!
This agency will also hire psychic healers and channelers to insure that any and all psychic damage to consumers is identified and redressed. The agency will establish professional standards that healers and channelers must meet prior to employment with the agency. The agency will also work with the appropriate government agencies to facilitate the financing for professional schools of psychic healing and channeling. This will allow the agency to fulfill its objective to insure a sufficient quantity of qualified psychic care practioners to meet the needs of the new society.
California has already mandated tribal psychic healing methods as mandatory for the Hmong peoples. New careers abound in California as a result of this enlightened court ruling! Sacramento's Third District Court of Appeal ruled that the slaughtered animals and herbal medicines were part of a traditional Hmong spirit-calling ceremony called Hublee, designed to heal the souls of those who are sick and injured. The new agency would automatically address this pressing need via its
professional cadre of psychic healers and channelers.
This agency will insure that all student loans are placed in a suspense account, pending later resolution by a rescheduling of all government debt. In the interim, the necessary interest payments will be borrowed by the government. These new IOU’s will be placed into the same trust fund that holds the Social Security IOU's. This will insure confidence by the lenders in this government agency’s creditworthiness.
This agency will be responsible for the issuance of Consumer Debit Cards to all citizens over three weeks old. This will insure that all consumers will have their own Consumer Debit Card. This will allow minors to learn the art of consuming from the beginning of their development This new childhood conditioning program will eradicate antisocial traits such as saving, investing, and frugality from the society in only one generation. Studies have shown that this double crediting of family's accounts will create 1,000,0000 new jobs.
This agency will be responsible for the creation of, and the enforcement of the Professional Consumer status. The Agency will have complete access to all consumer expenditures to insure that no moneys are diverted into selfish, socially deviant activities such as buying assets that do not depreciate.
Buying raw land or commodities is a forbidden activity. The purchasing of gold, silver, collectibles such as gold jewelry and rare watches, and the hoarding of currency over $25.00 are also prohibited activities The penalty for these activities is suspension of the citizens Professional Consumers status.
The establishment of IRA’s or 401 K's show a lack of faith in your government. This deviant behavior will be deemed an antisocial action, and will result in a permanent loss of your Professional Consumer status.
Any consumer who has lost their Professional Consumer status will be denied all medical services (including dental and psychic health services), all further credits to their good consumer retirement account, and a 80 percent reduction of their monthly entitlement ration. Any consumer who allows more than a five percent equity buildup in their residence will lose their Professional Consumer status until such time as they refinance their residence, and begin consuming with the funds.
The last power given to this agency is the authority to award the Medal Of Honor to any consumer who dies while engaging in extraordinary consumption. This new category of the Medal Of Honor will show the public what is expected of them in this new economy. All recipients are eligible for burial in the shopping center of their choice at the government’s expense!
The Costs and Benefits of this New Agency
Studies suggest that all the costs incurred by this agency will be offset by the new bull market in equities. Investors may have complete confidence that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 1,000,000 three years after the creation of this agency. This will completely eliminate the pension crisis that so many corporations are facing today.
Economists in the real estate sector estimate that housing prices will increase 40 times with this new stimulus. The taxes collected from real estate sales should eliminate the true National Debt in four years.
Some economists estimate that the net trickle down effect will result in quintupling the GNP, and create 1,900,000 jobs No wages and benefits have to be paid, because all consumers will have their Consumer Debit Cards, which provides for all expenses.
A small increase in business taxes will occur, but most businesses will be so happy to have free labor that the new 90 percent business tax should not be considered onerous. The reality is that the consumers have most of the votes, so there will be no real resistance to this tax increase from the Congress.
Freed from the tyranny of employee costs, businesses will create huge staffs. Some studies have shown that there will be soon more jobs available in the US than there are workers on the planet. This will create major breakthroughs in robotics, which will transform the US into the supreme technologist of the globe.
One study estimated that the creation of this agency will create $17,000,000,000 in new spending for the US. It will also eliminate counterfeiting of our currency, and identify theft, as there would no longer be any profit in these activities. Violent crime would plummet as most people will now be properly medicated.
In fact, many criminals have already changed their behavior as a result of the existing Medicare program. In earlier years, sex offenders would have resorted to crime to get their Viagra. Now Medicaid provides Viagra for them, removing the need for them to resort to crime to get their drugs. Medicaid may be the only process left in America that hardens American males at this time.
Here we see the first hint at how successful this new government agency will be at stimulating new business opportunities. Medicaid coverage providing Viagra for sex offenders has already yielded many benefits. The drug companies profits are up, demand for sex abuse therapists is up, increased demand for sex crime experts in the police departments, more tax collectors hired to collect the new taxes, more newspaper ads for property tax liens filed and the resulting tax auctions, etc.
This federal agency will create untold wealth for the entire globe!
If none of the expected financial benefits should materialize, we can always issue 100 year bonds. One Hundred year bonds were popular in the 1890’s.After all, "we owe it to ourselves" Issuing 100 year bonds insures that the generations yet unborn will get stuck with the whole bill, and we won’t have to listen to them complain about their status as financial slaves. Think of all the wonderful benefits that will occur from issuing all these new bonds. The money supply will go into Warp nine!
Forget E Pluribus Unum. This nation’s motto is Got Pork?
Wayne N. Krautkramer
Onlypill@cox.net
Posted at 05:07 pm by onlypill
Permalink
|
|
 |
|
 |
|